Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) will get to within 0.012AU of the Sun (extremely close) at the end of November 2013 and then to ~0.4AU from Earth at the beginning of January 2014! According to its orbit, this comet might become a naked-eye object in the period November 2013 - January 2014. And it might reach a negative magnitude at the end of November 2013.
We performed some follow-up measurements of this object, while it was still on the neocp. Stacking of 24 unfiltered exposures, 120-sec each, obtained remotely on 2012, September 22.4 from H06 (ITelescope network near Mayhill, NM) through a 0.25-m, f/3.4 reflector + CCD, shows that this object is slightly diffused, with a 5" coma. The FWHM of this object was measured about 15% wider than that of nearby field stars of similar brightness.
M.P.E.C. 2012-S63 assigns the following nearly parabolic (e = 0.999999964) orbital elements to comet C/2012 S1 (ISON): T 2013 Nov. 28.87; e= 0.99; Peri. = 345.56; q = 0.012 AU; Incl.= 62.36. (prediscovery observations were identified by G. V. Williams in MPC data from the Mount Lemmon Survey on 2011 Dec. 28 and from the 1.8-m f/4 Pan-STARRS reflector on 2012 Jan. 28)
Below you can see the orbit (Credit JPL) and current position of comet C/2012 S1 (ISON). The comet is at present of magnitude ~18 and it is located at 6.25 AU from the Sun.
Below you can see a graph generated using the software Orbitas and showing the predicted magnitude (in red) versus the elongation:
Below a star map (calculated for Latitude is 46 deg north, time about 45 minutes before sunrise) for 2013, Nov.10. showing the comet position (click on the image for a bigger version):
While by clicking here, you'll see a daily animation from 2013, Nov. 10 to Nov. 25 (wait a few seconds for the video to load).
Ephemerides (for the geocenter) generated using the "Minor Planet Ephemeris Service" for the period November 2013 - December 2014. A word of caution: as always with comets, the future magnitudes reported here are only indicative at this stage. Next weeks will tell us something more about the future of this promising comet.
by Ernesto Guido, Giovanni Sostero & Nick Howes